Plan your path to financial independence with Monte Carlo simulations, historical backtesting from 1926, and multiple FIRE strategies.
Inflation Adjusted
All values in today's purchasing power (Real $).
Insights
Your FIRE timeline is 25 years. Increasing your savings rate by even 5% could shorten this significantly.
Your 31% savings rate exceeds the commonly recommended 20% minimum.
Source: BEA 2024 / Gallup 2024
10,000 simulations · 40yr retirement
Final Balance Distribution
Probability at each age · SSA mortality data
Monte Carlo Success Rate
66%
Rich, Broke, or Dead?
See your probability of running out of money at each age, powered by SSA mortality data.
Find the optimal withdrawal rate based on Monte Carlo simulations
Your Current Withdrawal Rate
4%
Withdrawal Rate Optimizer
How sensitive is your FIRE age to changes in spending and market returns?
Highlighted dot = your current spending
Highlighted dot = your current return rate
Unlock Historical Backtesting (1926-present), SWR Optimizer, and Rich/Broke/Dead probability analysis.
Your inputs carry over automatically. Just pick a tool.
Free FIRE calculator with Monte Carlo simulation, historical backtesting, Coast & Barista FIRE, Social Security, pensions, and fee impact analysis. Plan your path to financial independence.
Your FIRE (Financial Independence, Retire Early) number is your annual expenses divided by your Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR). With the standard 4% rule, it equals 25x your annual spending. The calculator also factors in investment fees, tax drag, Social Security, pensions, and inflation to give you a real-world target.
Monte Carlo simulation runs 1,000+ randomized scenarios using historical return distributions instead of a single average return. It shows your probability of success (e.g., 85% chance your money lasts) and reveals how sequence-of-returns risk affects your plan. This is far more realistic than a straight-line projection.
Historical Backtesting replays your exact plan against every possible retirement start year from 1926 to present using actual S&P 500 real returns. It shows which start years would have succeeded or failed and your worst-case, median, and best-case portfolio trajectories, using real data, not simulations.
Coast FIRE means your existing investments will grow to your FIRE number by retirement age without any new contributions. Barista FIRE means you only need part-time income to cover current expenses while your portfolio grows. The calculator shows both milestones on your timeline.
Social Security and pension income reduce the amount your portfolio needs to cover. The calculator subtracts this guaranteed income from your annual expenses before calculating your FIRE number and adjusts your withdrawal needs at the age you start receiving benefits.
Even a 0.5% expense ratio can cost hundreds of thousands in lost growth over decades. The calculator shows your real return after fees and inflation, so you can see exactly how switching from a 1% fund to a 0.03% index fund accelerates your FIRE date.
Three models: Constant (fixed inflation-adjusted spending), Smile Curve (higher spending early and late in retirement, lower in middle years, matching real retiree behavior), and Guardrails (dynamically adjusts withdrawals based on portfolio performance to reduce failure risk).
The core calculator includes real return modeling, Coast/Barista FIRE, Social Security, pensions, fee analysis, and life event planning. PRO ($9.99/month) unlocks Monte Carlo simulation, Historical Backtesting, and scenario saving across all tools.
